Final look at AGS’s

Last Wednesday I took a look at the average game scores for the Missouri women’s basketball team. Yesterday I posted the AGS’s for some of the Big 12’s top players.

You don’t have to be a stats wizard to make a few observations on what these numbers mean. The Tiger with the highest AGS was Jessra Johnson (10.5). That’s a solid number but what’s concerning is that the next highest is Shakara Jones (7.05). Alyssa Hollins, considered to be Missouri’s best player and the team’s leader, has a pedestrian AGS of 5.92. And eight players have AGS’s below 3.0. In layman’s terms: That’s not good.*

*These numbers were figured last week so have obviously moved up and down a bit in the last week but not enough to provide a huge discrepancy in the numbers.

The biggest thing holding the Tigers back has been their offense. At times, their defense has been pretty solid, although they rank seventh in the Big 12 in scoring defense (59.7 ppg). But their offense has been horrendous. They’re currently the lowest scoring team in the conference with only 61.2 points per game.

They’re also in dead last in team field goal percentage (38.3 percent) and 10th in field goal percentage defense (40.1 percent). That’s obviously very poor efficiency, which factors heavily into the AGS formula.

So what we can finally conclude after examining the numbers is something most of us already knew: While this team is certainly better than last year, it’s still not very good.

Bubble could mean trouble

Teams desperately fighting for a spot in the NCAA tournament can be the most dangerous in late February or March. Just ask the No. 1 Pittsburgh Panthers, who just got shocked by unranked Providence. The win might have saved the Friars’ season, and Kansas State is in a similar situation as they head into Wednesday night’s showdown at Mizzou Arena. Even though they blew a 16-point home lead against Kansas 10 days ago, the Wildcats are still one of the hottest teams in the conference. They’re also desperately in need of a signature win to show the committee. A victory at #11 Mizzou would probably work.

Coach Anderson didn’t seem to believe that the Wildcats will be any more motivated for this game, but that seems unlikely. I spoke with KSU forward Darren Kent Monday, and he seemed well aware of just how important this game is. Kansas State’s toughest remaining game after Missouri is at Oklahoma St., so it would seem like they’ll need either a win in Columbia or a good run in the Big 12 tournament to make the Big Dance. Additionally, Kent noted that even though the Wildcats have crushed Mizzou in Manhattan twice since then, the seven holdovers from last year’s team haven’t forgotten about the embarrassing loss they suffered to a shorthanded Missouri team in Columbia last season.

All that being said, the Tigers certainly have plenty of motivation as well. Along with avenging the loss in Manhattan, Missouri is fighting for a Big 12 regular season title and of course, a valuable high seed in the NCAA tournament. The homecourt advantage may be enough to reverse the shooting trends from the game in Manhattan — when all the Tigers except for Matt Lawrence struggled and Kansas State was lights out — and the Tigers’ have certainly developed some pride when it comes to defending their home court.

All motivation aside, this game is a dangerous one for Missouri. Kansas State may be one of the few teams in the conference with the athletic big men that can match up with Carroll and Lyons, as well as the quick guards who can handle the defensive prowess of Taylor and Tiller. Recently, Kansas State has even shown some depth that rivals that of Missouri (8 Wildcats played more than 13 minutes against Iowa State and Kansas). The Wildcats have shown they’re capable of winning in a hostile environment with victories at Texas and at Texas A&M, but they also showed some serious deficiencies in falling behind 18-0 at Allen Fieldhouse and getting crushed at Nebraska earlier this season. Then again, that seems like a long time ago, before the Wildcats won 8 of their last 9.

In the end, I think if Kansas State wants to earn the upset, they’ll have to get it in the first half, and maybe even in the first 10 minutes. Not only have the Wildcats lost huge leads at Texas and at home against Kansas, but the Tigers are so good in the second half (19-0 when leading at halftime), especially at home, that if they are winning or even close at the break, they’ll be very tough to beat in front of what is likely to be another sellout crowd.

Big 12 Game Scores

As promised last week, here are the average game scores for five of the bigger name players in the Big 12 Conference. 

AGS

Courtney Paris, Oklahoma 17.53

Danielle McCray, Kansas 12.65

Brittany Spears, Colorado 12.47

Shalee Lehning, Kansas State 11.61

Andrea Riley, Oklahoma State 11.11

By the end of the week I will try to compare these statistics to the ones I came up with for Missouri’s players and attempt to provide some sort of analysis on what it all means.

Missouri women fall to Texas

No. 13 Texas never trailed in the second half on its way to a 66-56 victory Tuesday night at Mizzou Arena.

Missouri hanging with No. 13 Texas

The Missouri women’s basketball team trails No. 13 Texas 30-24 at halftime at Mizzou Arena. The Tigers jumped out to a 9-2 lead and led for much of the first half, but the Longhorns took the lead with about 4:00 left of the clock.

Alyssa Hollins leads Missouri with 12 points. Brittainey Raven has 13 points for the Longhorns. Yvonne Anderson, the daughter of Missouri men’s basketball coach Mike Anderson, scored three points for the Texas in the opening half. Most members of the Missouri men’s coaching staff and roster are here watching tonight.

Kansas puts Mizzou in the hunt

By beating Oklahoma on Monday night, Kansas officially made the race for the Big 12 title a three team fight.

If Missouri can take care of its business against Kansas State on Wednesday, Sunday’s showdown in Lawrence will be an opportunity for Missouri to pull into a three-way tie for first by handing the Jayhawks their second conference loss. Missouri and Oklahoma have both already fallen twice in Big 12 competition.

Four days ago, Oklahoma had a death grip on the conference. Two losses and one injury to Blake Griffin later, and it truly is anyone’s conference to win.

Griffin out

Blake Griffin will not play tonight against Kansas. You have to think that makes Kansas the favorites to win this game.

Big 12 Title Up for Grabs

Thanks to Blake Griffin’s concussion that led to Texas’ upset of No. 3 Oklahoma, the race for the Big 12 regular season title has gotten a lot more interesting. Three teams, Oklahoma (11-1), Kansas (11-1) and (gasp!) Missouri (10-2) all control their own destiny with four games to go in conference play. Only Missouri would need some help to win the conference outright, but if the Tigers win out, they would get the coveted #1 seed in the conference tourney. Here are the dates and games you should put on your calendar, as they will probably decide who winds up in first place:

Tonight at 8:00 p.m.: Kansas @ Oklahoma. How will OU look without Griffin? Can the Jayhawks become the first team win in Norman this season?

Sunday @1:00 p.m.: Missouri @ Kansas. Can the Tigers end the longest homecourt winning streak in the country? Will the Jayhawks get revenge for the one they let slip away in Columbia?

Wed. Mar. 4: Oklahoma @ Missouri. Can Oklahoma get its first impressive road win of the season? How will the Tigers match up with a Top 10 team?

All season long, Mike Anderson has stressed the importance of defending the home floor. It’s no coincidence that these three teams are all unbeaten in their home arenas (Kansas lost a “home” game in KC to Massachusetts 61-60). If that trend holds, the Sooners would be the conference champions by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker against Kansas. Of course, there are other games to be played, and plenty of upsets have happened this season in the Big 12. It would appear Missouri has the toughest remaining schedule of the three leaders, with a home game against Kansas State Wednesday and a dangerous road game against Texas A&M to end the season on March 7. Here are the remaining schedules for Kansas and Oklahoma, excluding the games mentioned above:

Kansas: Mar. 4 @ Texas Tech; Mar. 7 vs. Texas                                                                                                                                                 Oklahoma: Feb. 28 @ Texas Tech; Mar. 7 vs. Oklahoma State

If Missouri wins Wednesday night against Kansas State, the Tigers would guarantee their first top 3 finish in the Big 12 since the 1998-99 season. Sunday’s game against Kansas might hold even more importance than just the Big 12 standings. Bill Self and Mike Anderson seem to be the leading candidates for Big 12 Coach of the Year (Frank Martin might also be in the discussion) and winning this one could go a long way in deciding that award.

Kansas’ Sharron Collins and Oklahoma State’s James Anderson shared Big 12 player of the week honors for last week. Collins averaged 22 points and 5 assists while recording zero turnovers and shooting 58.6% from the field in easy wins over Nebraska and Iowa St. Anderson led the Cowboys to wins over Texas Tech and Baylor while averaging 22 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2 assists per game. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s Willie Warren won the Big 12 Rookie of the Week award for the 7th time this season, which puts him just one behind record-holder Michael Beasley with two weeks to go. Warren nearly made up for the absence of Blake Griffin and led the Sooners with 27 points in a loss to Texas in Oklahoma’s only game of the week.

Tigers get 10th win

In the nonconference schedule, when a bad team like SIUE would come to Missouri, coach Mike Anderson would often say that the opponent “had nothing to lose and everything to gain.” If they lost at Mizzou Arena, that’s what was supposed to happen. But if they won, it would make their season.

Missouri’s trip to Colorado on Saturday was basically the exact opposite.

The Tigers had nothing to gain and everything to lose. By beating Colorado, the Tigers didn’t bolster their tournament resume. They didn’t impress any coaches or poll voters. It isn’t a win that is likely to give the team much extra confidence going into its final four games.

Really, the only thing the Tigers did on Saturday was avoid all of the negative things that could have happened if they lost.

If Missouri had lost to Colorado, it likely would have fallen drastically in the polls. It would have put the Tigers decidedly out of the race for the Big 12 title. Losing to Colorado would have left the Tigers with more work to do to officially seal up their tournament resume.

But Missouri didn’t lose, it won. And with 10 conference wins already, Missouri can coast into the big dance.

Stein on why this weekend will be different from last weekend

After the Missouri women’s basketball team’s practice today I was talking to coach Cindy Stein about the difficulty her team is experiencing in trying to win on the road. You can read more about that here, but there was something I left out of my story that I thought was interesting.

I compared the situation the Tigers are in this week to the one they were in last week. Last week the Tigers were coming off a big win against Kansas in their previous game and preparing to travel to Baylor where they suffered their biggest loss of the year 72-43.

This week the Tigers are coming off another big win against No. 16-ranked Kansas State and are again set to hit the road to play Nebraska. I asked Stein what she thought her team learned from their letdown the previous weekend.

“I think the letdown had more to do with having a week off,” Stein said. “It’s hard to have a week off because you are in such a structure of going going going. And it’s hard, I’ve talked to a lot of coaches and that week off, a lot of people think it’s great that aren’t coaches or players. Your team needs it from a rest standpoint but we don’t need it from a rhythm standpoint. Because you see a lot of teams get out of rhythm with it. So it’s really hard to know exactly what to do with it.”

Tigers upset Wildcats

The Missouri women’s basketball team defeated No. 16-ranked Kansas State 52-43. Jessra Johnson led the Tigers with 17 points. She also grabbed nine rebounds and blocked six shots. Alyssa Hollins added 12 points.

Check the ColumbiaMissourian.com later for more on the game.

Tigers lead Wildcats at half

The Missouri women’s basketball team leads No. 16-ranked Kansas State 26-20 at halftime.

The Wildcats jumped out to a quick 8-0 lead but failed to make a field goal in the final 12:21. 

Alyssa Hollins and Shakara Jones led the Tigers with seven points apiece. Jalana Childs has a game-high eight points.

The Wildcats are without their star point guard, senior Shalee Lening who is out with mononucleosis.

Mills out of lineup for K-State

Redshirt freshman point guard Bekah Mills is not dressed out for tonight’s game against Kansas State. Mills injured her knee in the Tigers’ last game against Baylor.

A statistical analysis of MU women’s basketball

I’ve always been a huge basketball fan. It was my favorite sport to play growing up, has always been my favorite sport to watch and has been my favorite sport that I’ve covered. That said, I have to admit that I’m kind of a dork when it comes to basketball statistics. I hate math but I love breaking down numbers when they’re listed in a basketball box score.

I think all statistics should be taken with a grain of salt. There are some things in sports—particularly in basketball—that can’t be measured by any stat. Most numbers don’t measure a player making a pass that leads to a pass that leads to a basket. Most numbers don’t tell how a player is going to perform when their team is down two points in the final minutes and playing in front of thousands of screaming fans.

But one of my favorite stats that I think does a much better job of revealing a player’s true value than any stat found in most box scores is a player’s game score. The game score was created by ESPN’s John Hollinger and measures a player’s overall productivity. Here’s the formula to calculate a game score: PTS + 0.4 * FG – 0.7 * FGA – 0.4*(FTA – FT) + 0.7 * ORB + 0.3 * DRB + STL + 0.7 * AST + 0.7 * BLK – 0.4 * PF – TOV.

When most fans read a box score they tend to place more of an emphasis on certain statistical categories and that’s how so many players end up being overrated while others are undervalued. A player may score 30 points but if they turn the ball over 10 times then their value might be less than a player who scores 15 points with 10 assists and only two turnovers. The game score ignores those biases and produces a better overall measure of a player’s worth to their team.

Below you have each player’s average game score for the Missouri women’s basketball team:

AGS

Jessra Johnson 10.5

Shakara Jones 7.05

RaeShara Brown 6.57

Alyssa Hollins 5.92

Bekah Mills 4.71

Christine Flores 2.91

Toy Richbow 2.05

Jasmyn Otote 1.48

Bailey Gee 1.34

Amanda Hanneman 1.18

Marissa Scott 1.04

Kendra Frazier 0.37

BreAnna Brock 0.25

In the next couple days I will calculate the average game score for some of the better players in the Big 12 to say how the Tigers stack up.

Tigers continue to rise

Missouri capped off another impressive week Saturday with a 70-47 win over Nebraska at Mizzou Arena. With the help of losses from the six teams in front of them in last week’s AP poll (Marquette, UCLA, Clemson, Villanova, Xavier and Butler), they moved all the way up to No. 11, and were ranked No. 10 in the ESPN/USA Today poll. The win also kept the Tigers in third place and in the hunt for a Big 12 title, although it’s hard to imagine them running the table and getting someone else to beat #2 Oklahoma.

Missouri, Oklahoma, and Kansas seem to be distancing themselves from the pack in the Big 12 race. Kansas State fell three games behind Missouri with a home loss to Kansas, moving Texas into fourth at 6-4. But the Longhorns are still struggling, after needing overtime to win at last-place Colorado.

Blake Griffin and Willie Warren once again took home Big 12 Player of the Week and Rookie of the Week honors, respectively. In dominating wins over Baylor and Texas Tech, Griffin averaged 29 points and 16.5 rebounds per game, while Warren scored 14.5 points and dished out 4 assists per game. Griffin became the first player in Big 12 history to score 40 points and grab 20 rebounds when he got 40 and 23 against Texas Tech Saturday. Both were career-highs and his rebounding total was a school record.

Missouri plays just one game this week, at Colorado on Saturday. Oklahoma plays a crucial game at Texas then hosts Kansas next Monday. If the Tigers are going to have a shot at a regular season Big 12 title, they’ll probably need Oklahoma to stumble in one of those games.

Look for more on Missouri in tomorrow’s Missourian.